For Las Vegas, you can call the game. April 2008 will be seen as the end of the downturn. In one month, the following both happened:
For the first time since September 2005, sales of single-family homes in Las Vegas rose from the same month of the previous year, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. Home sales jumped to 1,794 in April, up nearly 30 percent from April 2007 and the fourth consecutive monthly increase. ( Source: Las Vegas Review Journal 5/7/08 )
Real Inventory, defined as Inventory you can actually buy and is not in contract, declined from 23718 to 22,719, a drop of 4.2% in a single month
Dispatching the Naysayers:
“This is just because of the Spring selling season.”
“Wrongo. The sales numbers are being compared to last April, also a selling season. This surge is independent of seasonal factors.
“4.2% isn’t that much.”
Nice try. If you annualize that rate out, you end up with about a 50% decrease. That means we’re on our way to an 11,000 inventory, about what Las Vegas had in the second half of 2004.
“Prices are still falling.”
Don’t hold your breath that they’ll fall much more. When inventory is vanishing at this kind of pace, it means that buyers are rushing to buy. And when that happens, sellers find out.
“This is all foreclosure sales.”
t’s a GOOD thing to have lots of foreclosure sales. At Manhattan Condominiums, there are five transactions in contract, as compared to a single transaction earlier in the year. These units have been priced under market and they’re moving quickly.