Committed Renter Buys House

This article, which is currently the most emailed business article in the New York Times, is interesting primarily for its analytical approach:

The case for renting has been simple enough. House prices rose so high in the first half of this decade that you could often get more for your money by renting. You could also avoid having a large part of your net worth tied up in a speculative bubble.

Over the last several years, I’ve come to like a simple, back-of-the-envelope way to compare the costs of renting and owning. You find two similar houses, one for sale and the other for rent, and divide the sale price by the annual rent. You can call the result the rent ratio.

The concept will probably sound familiar to stock market investors. It’s the real estate market’s version of a price-earnings ratio — a measure of how expensive an asset is, relative to the underlying economic fundamentals. Like a P/E ratio, the rent ratio provides something of a reality check.

Throughout the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s, the average rent ratio nationwide hovered between 10 and 14. In the last few years, though, it broke through that historical range and hit almost 19 by the time the housing market peaked, in 2006.

And while home prices — and rent ratios — have always been higher on the coasts, they reached whole new levels recently. In the Washington area, the ratio went above 20. In Boston, New York, Los Angeles and south Florida, it topped 25. In Northern California, it approached 35, higher than it had been in any city, at any point on record.

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In the neighborhoods where we were looking, two-bedroom condominiums were selling for $400,000 and being rented for about $2,100 a month, which makes for a rent ratio of 16. Four-bedroom houses were selling for $700,000 and being rented for almost $4,000, which makes for a rent ratio of 15. No matter the price range, pretty much every apples-to-apples comparison produced a similar ratio.

Historically, this is still a bit high. But it’s very different from where the market was just a couple of years ago. With house prices having fallen over the last two years and rents continuing to rise, the decision became a much closer call. We would now have to spend only a little more each month for the privilege of owning.

This article calculates Las Vegas’ Rent Ratio to now be 17.1. But if you look carefully for high quality locations that command higher rents, you can do better than that. At Manhattan Condominiums, for example, condominiums that command $1350 a month are being listed for $220,000. That’s a rent ratio of only 13.6. In a city with a rapidly growing population.

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3 Responses to Committed Renter Buys House

  1. InfoMofo says:

    Where are these manhattan condos that sell for 220,000? Are we talking about studios in Harlem?

  2. frothingdeveloper says:

    We’re referring to the “Manhattan Condominums” development here in Las Vegas. Homes there start in the low $200’s- FM.

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