Case Shiller: The Tide Starts to Turn

The monthly Case Shiller numbers came out today, and from the shrill tone of the media’s reporting, you’d think the 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse were riding again.

AP writes:

U.S. home prices tumbled in April at the fastest rate since a widely followed index was begun in 2000 with all 20 metropolitan areas surveyed posting annual declines for the first time

The problem with this analysis is that its based on year over year comparisons:

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 cities fell by 15.3 percent in April versus a year ago, according to Tuesday’s report. Prices nationwide are at levels not seen since August 2004.

We already know that prices are down from April 2007. The only news worth looking at here is, how are prices trending now?

Case Shiller was down less, month over month, across the country, than any month since September 2007.

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Very similar data in Las Vegas:

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I’ve predicted that when next month’s numbers come out, we’ll be at 0% decrease, month over month, for Las Vegas. We shall see.

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