Another Month, Another Remarkably Obtuse GLVAR Release

Gaaah! Froth! Argh!

At the beginning of every month, we have a chance to read Hubble Smith’s latest article based on the completely misleading, erroneous GLVAR inventory numbers.

This month is no different.

A trained monkey could prove the GLVAR wrong.

Let’s play Trained Monkey.

1) Trained Monkey go to GLVAR website (las.mlxchange.com)

2) Trained Monkey do search on available SFR inventory. To do that, Trained Monkey click on “Reports”, and then “Statistical Reports” and then type in “SFR” and then ER and EA because they’re the only classifications that show available inventory.

3) Trained Monkey see “16,978” show up on screen.

4) Trained Monkey look at chart printed in this morning’s LVRJ:

image

5) Trained Monkey scratch head, conclude that GLVAR wants to make things look as bad as possible, and goes off to eat a banana.

I challenge the GLVAR executive management to come up with any plausible justification for them to cripple the efforts of their own dues-paying membership by overstating inventory by nearly 50%. The answer “because we’ve always done it that way” is not sufficient. The answer “some of the units in contract will fall out of contract” is ridiculous. I’m really pissed this morning. The only thing worse than one-time stupidity is repetitive, month-after-grinding-month stupidity. The LVRJ should be chastised for not mentioning this major fault in this data. I have briefed Hubble Smith on this and am very disappointed that he does not mention this nearly 50% overstatement.

If you are an agent with access to the MLS, do the Trained Monkey dance above, then send a letter to Patty Kelly asking her why she is making your life harder.

While you’re at it, send a letter to Hubble Smith that reads: “Dear Hubble, you are getting bogus data from the GLVAR because they include more than 7000 in-contract units as “available” inventory. This makes the inventory position look tremendously worse than it is. You should be reporting on the REAL inventory.” You can send that message to Hubble by clicking here:

For those of you interested in the REAL inventory numbers in Las Vegas, this is what they look like:

https://frothingdeveloper.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/image7.png

image

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6 Responses to Another Month, Another Remarkably Obtuse GLVAR Release

  1. Good post.

    Is there any reason why the GLVAR would do this to all of us dues-paying members? They should tout the fact that their Realtors are doing their job by putting deals into escrow. Idiots….

  2. rob says:

    Sorry FD, it’s an apples-to-apples comparison that doesn’t support your perma-hype position. A lot of the pendings are short sales that need lender approval, but aren’t going to get it. The GLVAR knows this and wants to present good data. Somehow this is offensive to you.

  3. Ryan says:

    I was at Crystal Ball in….I believe it was the Spring/Summer of ’07. I was told by my broker that the crowd was visibly smaller, but it was still a good turn out. Every major speaker foretold how Las Vegas would beat back the impending bubble doom. The crowd wanted to hear it so we all knodded North and South in agreement. Of course, we know what later happened.

    Now GLVAR is over compensating for their mess up. I think a better way is for GLVAR to report the data as the monkey does, but then note that “x” amount are pending.

    GLVAR was looking at the glass full over a year ago, now they are looking at it just a bit less than half empty. Since most buyers get there market education from the media, we are setting our city up for failure. I believe there is a balance between our Frothing Developer “FD”, and GLVAR that needs to be found. Although it is only one step from our FD, which is making a note on the reports…IMHO. –RED

  4. frothingdeveloper says:

    The GLVAR does this for two reasons:

    1. They are making what Rob below correctly calls an “apples-to-apples” comparison. If they switched now it would confuse a lot of people looking at historical data. That still doesn’t mean that they’re doing it the right way.

    2. Sales that are pending or contingent may come back into inventory, and the GLVAR doesn’t want to count them as “sold” until they’re closed. The problem is that they’re not “available” either.

    The argument that you should count pending and contingent units as available because they may come back into inventory is flawed. If these units come back into active inventory (status EA and ER), then inventory will go back up, and we’ll report it here.

    But until they do EA and ER active inventory is still the purest gauge of how many homes are “on the market” today.

  5. Frothing Developer says:

    Here’s a metaphor: Suppose a division of troops go into combat, and 1000 get wounded. Some of the wounded will die and some will heal. GLVAR’s approach is to count them all as dead. How is that “good data”?

  6. […] memo to the Review Journal:  all of us around the office could do without you folks making up pessimistic figures! My “trained monkey” only got about 16,500 active listings.  Maybe some went […]

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