LVRJ: Las Vegas Growth Still Robust

August 25, 2008

Jennifer Robison discusses Las Vegas’ continued growth in today’s RJ:

Today, with job growth flat … the Silver State should experience tougher times attracting fresh blood.

But local experts say Nevada continues to lead much of the country in growth…

One key element of growth that’s more easily measured than sometimes lagging state statistics is public school enrollment.  The number of students in Las Vegas schools continues to grow.

Robison further notes:

  • State Demographer Jeff Hardcastle reported 95,287 new Nevadans between July 1, 2006, and June 30, 2007, the latest period for which he has data. That’s on par with the 100,000 or so new residents the state typically added annually in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
  • The U.S. Census Bureau in December named Nevada the nation’s No. 1 state for growth in the year ending July 1, 2007.
    • Nevada’s growth rate of 2.9 percent placed the state in the top spot for expansion for the 20th time in 21 years.
  • After several months of lagging behind year-over-year results, July’s turn-ins actually matched surrenders from July 2007, with totals in both months coming in at just over 6,100 licenses.

According to Brian Gordon, a principal in local economic research firm Applied Analysis:

“People are certainly still coming here….We’re expected to continue to hold the top spot going forward based on fundamentals in our market.”

Gordon says that new residents persist in coming partly because things are worse where they live now.

Nevada continues to enjoy a lower cost of living than California, so the Silver State holds appeal to people relocating from there.

People also move for noneconomic benefits such as warmer weather, recreational and entertainment opportunities or proximity to family, said Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

According to Gordon:

70,000 to 80,000 new neighbors bring fresh sales prospects for retailers, restaurants and builders. That could lead to more tax revenue, especially as the housing market stabilizes and consumer confidence improves.

-Frothing Mark


Las Vegas Job Growth Picks Up Steam

July 28, 2008

The RJ published details this morning on the job boom in Las Vegas. True to character, they pitched it with a negative tone, but it’s hard not to get excited about these numbers:

The $675 million Aliante Station, which is scheduled to open Nov. 11, began taking applications for its nearly 1,200 jobs July 6.

Dennis Shipley, corporate director of human resources for Cannery Casino Resorts, said the company received approximately 20,000 applications for 1,200 jobs for its new $250 million Eastside Cannery.

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Wynn Resorts won’t start interviewing job candidates until early August, Rosol said; job offers will follow in late September.

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The nearly 7,700 new jobs these three properties are bringing to the market are just the beginning of a jump in employment in the industry.

And let’s not forget M Resort, which has quietly been making headway under the radar:

•The $1 billion M Resort will begin taking applications in September to fill the nearly 2,000 jobs at the hotel-casino scheduled to open next spring.


Nevada: Strong Employment and Population Growth

July 28, 2008

Here’s a nice chart, courtesy of Tom Stewart at Consolidated Mortgage. It goes back to 1990.

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To someone who says “yeah, but we didn’t have employment growth in the last 12 months”, the response is: what charts like this tell us is that there is deep underlying strength in Nevada’s growth patterns. It’s that kind of strength that leads regions out of recessions.


Time For A "Year over Year" Comparison

July 8, 2008

Long time readers of Frothing Developer will know that we are not big fans of Year over Year comparisons. They’re interesting from a historical point of view, but not particularly useful predicting the future.

Here’s an interesting comparison from this morning’s National Association of Realtor’s press release:

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The West has a better Pending Sales index than it had a year ago, whereas each of the other three parts of the country continues to underperform last year’s numbers.

One reason for this is the underlying economic strength of the West. These things are long-term trends: the movement of retirees to the sunbelt, the movement of workers from high-tax regimes like Ohio and New York to low-tax regimes like Nevada, the population growth of the Hispanic community, the power of NAFTA.

Read the original press release here.


Massive Hiring Underway in Alliante

July 3, 2008

Very quietly, Alliante Station, the new casino in North Las Vegas, has started hiring to fill “more than 1000 new jobs”, according to the Las Vegas Sun this morning. Keep in mind that although lots of new casino jobs are filled by transfers from other casinos, each transfer creates a new job at some other casino. Eventually, you need 1000 new workers.

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This hotel opens November 11, in less than 6 months.

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We’re Still Not In a Recession, Day 455

June 27, 2008

The government upped its estimate of growth for the first quarter by 10%. There’s no question that economic activity is weak, but I’ll take 1% growth over recession anyday.

Full Story Here


Other Real Estate Growth Areas

June 12, 2008

HousingBubbleBlog reports:

The Ann Arbor News from Michigan. “In what could be a sign that the local housing market is finally on the mend, numbers released by an Ann Arbor Realtors group Tuesday show Washtenaw County home and condo sales jumped 24 percent in May from a year ago.”

The Pioneer Press from Minnesota. “The large for-sale inventory dogging the Twin Cities housing market may finally be burning off. Total listings in the 13-county metro area dropped in May from a year ago – the first such decline in years.”

The Orlando Sentinel in Florida. “The number of houses and condos available through the local MLS was down 421 for the month and 1.76 percent lower than in May 2007.