Upbeat article about Las Vegas in yesterday’s USA Today
I was pleasantly surprised to see the number of closed sales in July:
Compare that to June’s already strong numbers and you see a nice rate of growth.
Note that none of these are from Trump or Palms Place. This is all resale.
One of the most interesting parts of it is what it says about the widely-watched Case-Shiller index:
The Case-Shiller index weights transactions by value. For example, it gives eight times as much weight to the sale of an $800,000 home as it does to a $100,000 home, meaning it is particularly sensitive to what is happening with high-priced homes in the largest, most expensive markets.
I blame myself for not having realized it. It explains why my recent prediction that Las Vegas Case-Shiller numbers would stabilize in July was off. Las Vegas has hit, I believe, price stability on housing below $300k, but transactions on houses higher than that are having a destabilizing effect. In my opinion, there are very few houses worth more than $500k.
Small potatoes, admittedly, but always nice to see manufacturing jobs created.
A pretty upbeat perspective on the housing market from Jim Cramer, who when last seen was bashing homebuilder stocks. He’s doing the same kind of root analysis that we do here at Frothing Developer
- 865,000 new homes purchased normally.
- Lots of pent-up demand.
- Price matters, and the price drops are having an impact.
- Federal action to prevent foreclosures
- April sales are up over March because of these factors
- Typical bad 2/28 loans are coming to an end. Last quarter of 2006 was the end of those. By end of 2008, those loans will all have reset.
“Why no one thinks these things matter is beyond me”.
“How anyone could think things could get much worse is beyond me and flies in the face of reality….This is coming to a conclusion….maybe less than a year.”