USA Today: Rebound in Las Vegas

August 6, 2008

Upbeat article about Las Vegas in yesterday’s USA Today

image


Pow! Amazing Sales Numbers for July

August 6, 2008

I was pleasantly surprised to see the number of closed sales in July:

image

Compare that to June’s already strong numbers and you see a nice rate of growth.

Note that none of these are from Trump or Palms Place. This is all resale.

image


Positive Housing Study

August 5, 2008

This report ran yesterday in the Washington Post.

One of the most interesting parts of it is what it says about the widely-watched Case-Shiller index:

The Case-Shiller index weights transactions by value. For example, it gives eight times as much weight to the sale of an $800,000 home as it does to a $100,000 home, meaning it is particularly sensitive to what is happening with high-priced homes in the largest, most expensive markets.

I blame myself for not having realized it. It explains why my recent prediction that Las Vegas Case-Shiller numbers would stabilize in July was off. Las Vegas has hit, I believe, price stability on housing below $300k, but transactions on houses higher than that are having a destabilizing effect. In my opinion, there are very few houses worth more than $500k.


Case – Shiller Update

May 29, 2008

Las Vegas Case-Shiller index drops to 169. That data reflects March pricing and the drop from February. My prediction is that we’ll have one more good-sized drop in the index when it comes out at the end of June. Come end of July, though, the index will only go down if the sales that happened in the month of May were at lower prices than the sales that happened in the month of April. I predict that didn’t happen (interesting use of tenses there, no?). My prediction is that based on anecdotal evidence that foreclosures in April sold at lower prices than foreclosures in May, that we’ll see a leveling off of Case-Shiller in Las Vegas. That should get significant national attention, because I predict at the same time that most other parts of the country will continue to see price declines. You read it here first!

Chart courtesy of Calculated Risk:


Inventory Decline Continues

May 29, 2008

Total available inventory dropped below 22,400 today. It is now down 23% from its peak last September.

clip_image002


Manufacturing Increase in Vegas

May 29, 2008

Small potatoes, admittedly, but always nice to see manufacturing jobs created.


Jim Cramer: Housing poised to recover

May 28, 2008

A pretty upbeat perspective on the housing market from Jim Cramer, who when last seen was bashing homebuilder stocks. He’s doing the same kind of root analysis that we do here at Frothing Developer

Cramer’s points:

  • 865,000 new homes purchased normally.
  • Lots of pent-up demand.
  • Price matters, and the price drops are having an impact.
  • Federal action to prevent foreclosures
  • April sales are up over March because of these factors
  • Typical bad 2/28 loans are coming to an end. Last quarter of 2006 was the end of those. By end of 2008, those loans will all have reset.

“Why no one thinks these things matter is beyond me”.

“How anyone could think things could get much worse is beyond me and flies in the face of reality….This is coming to a conclusion….maybe less than a year.”

image

We agree.